Vance Norgaard

I have talked at length about the absolute need for a long-term plan to transition from a high fossil fuel consuming state to low fossil fuel consuming state as peak oil occurs and oil, as we know it, diminishes in supply on a world-wide basis. Let me give you an example of what one part of this plan could entail. First I would start with what I call “Minnesota’s agriculture support backup plan.”

Even though peak oil and oil depletion are going to be a somewhat gradual process, there are situations that could disrupt production and delivery, leading to short- and long-term shortages which can have all kinds of ramifications. What could cause disruptions? Well, let’s start with hurricanes, and how Katrina impacted the price and supply of oil. What if one of our suppliers finds a new buyer? What if another country can pay more than the U.S. can pay? What if something really nasty happens in the Middle East? There are many more “what if’s” and they are all real possibilities.

Now getting back to my point. The agriculture (ag) industry in our district and state is a very important and necessary part of our lives and our economy. IT IS OUR FOOD SUPPLY! In order for the ag industry to function there is a window of time in the spring when the farmers absolutely need fuel and gasoline to plant crops. This time period lasts from about mid April to mid June. If there are not seeds in the ground during this time period, the planting opportunity is missed, and crop production in the state will be greatly reduced. The same applies to the fall harvest. A fuel shortage during a crop cycle could be disastrous. So how can we protect ourselves from this situation?

With all of Minnesota in mind, we should store (in strategic agricultural areas around the state) a one-year reserve stock of all of the petroleum products it takes for a one-year crop cycle. I am unsure if this type of plan currently exists in the state. Maybe all current suppliers could expand their storage for more inventory, and the plan dovetails into the current supply system. All of these stocks could be consumed in the normal manner, using a “first in, first out system” with a one-year inventory. Costs of the system would include storage and the carrying costs for a large inventory. Even though this system could be very expensive, consider the cost of one year’s lost crop to the district and state. Who would ultimately pay for this critical carrying cost? More than likely, the consumers of the food supply. Where will the money come from? We need to change our thinking to match the new realities. Once life’s true necessities are separated from the non-essentials, the answers will become clear, and the money will be available.

This is just one of many scenarios that will be played out in the future as oil supplies tighten, prices increase, and competition for oil increases. We need to start planning and acting now. The example I have just given you does not include reducing oil consumption. The example functions as a safety net within the long-term transitional plan.

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